May could lose majority in United Kingdom parliament -YouGov study in The Times

Claudine Rigal
Juin 3, 2017

The constituency-by-constituency estimate for The Times by YouGov indicates the Conservative Party could lose 20 seats and see its majority wiped out, while Jeremy Corbyn's Labour may gain 28 seats.

YouGov's analysis puts the Tories on 310 seats - down from the 330 they went into the election with and 16 short of a majority.

The Conservatives were on 42 percent, down a point from last week, with Labour up three points, the YouGov survey said.

The polling company said it would update the first findings of the model later on Wednesday. That would certainly add immensely to the uncertainties surrounding the election and the Brexit negotiations.

But if she does not handsomely beat the 12-seat majority Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority could be undermined just as she tries to deliver what she has told voters will be a successful Brexit.

The news came after a string of opinion polls show a narrowing lead for May's Conservatives, shaking the confidence among investors that she would easily win a majority in the election.

But polls had shown May's rating slipping over the past month and they fell sharply after she set out plans on May 18 to make some elderly people pay a greater share of their care costs, a proposal dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents.

Meanwhile other pollsters point to a comfortable win for the Tories, with ComRes predicting a 100-plus majority and an ICM poll giving Theresa May's party a 12-point lead on 45%, which would suggest a majority of 76.

During a visit to Plymouth Fisheries, where she met local fishermen, Mrs May said: "The only poll that matters is the one that's going to take place on June 8 and then people will have a choice as to who they want to see as leader, who they want to see as prime minister taking this country forward in the future, me or Jeremy Corbyn".

A bad night could see the Conservatives plummet to 274 seats.

YouGov's model draws on the data collected from around 50,000 panellists quizzed on their voting intention over the course of a week and uses a recently-developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). Labour was predicted to win 257 seats, up from 229 at the last election.

Betting markets give a more than 80-percent probability of May winning an overall majority, though they were wrong ahead of the unexpected Brexit result in the 23 June referendum previous year.

YouGov chief executive Stephan Shakespeare said the data could change dramatically between now and June 8.

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